Articles

My First Model

My First Model By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics Hi everyone! I’m going to use this “blog” to write some articles instead of publishing through a third party. For my inaugural post, I thought I’d revisit the very first sports betting model I’ve ever built. Sports betting has been legal in Canada since the 1990s…well, sort …

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+EV in the SuperContest

+EV in the SuperContest By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics “It’s like the nature channel. You don’t see piranhas eating each other, do you?” – Mike McD, Rounders Last year, I was a part owner of an entry that placed 79th in the Westgate NFL SuperContest. After paying 30% withholding tax for non-US citizens on the GROSS cash …

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Betting Against Yourself

Betting Against Yourself By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics Today’s topic comes from a reader’s suggestion (yes, I do have readers!) prompted by his observation that a friend of his bet, in his words, “waaaaay too many top 20s” in a golf tournament. Some of my earliest childhood experiences with gambling were when my dad would …

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Introduction to Mixed Models

Introduction to Mixed Models By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics I was chatting with a friend about a Bayesian Inference model that I had helped him build. I tried to explain to him how it worked – his response was “that’s tough to grasp”. And he was right – the guy was certainly intelligent enough, it’s …

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To The Extreme: MLB Season Props

To The Extreme: MLB Season Props By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics “To the extreme, I rock a mic like a vandalLight up a stage and wax a chump like a candle” – Vanilla Ice “Any player scores 49+ runs?” “Any player has 77+ hits?” “Any player hits 20+ home runs?” How do we price these “any player” …

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Narratives

Narratives By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics “If you’re looking for picks you’re in the wrong place, find a tout with a narrative to make a strong case” – “Bet the Process” podcast theme song Yesterday I had the honour of appearing on the “Happy Hour” webcast with legendary advantage player Captain Jack Andrews and Andrew Mack, author of the excellent “Statistical …

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