My First Model By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics Hi everyone! I’m going to use this “blog” to write some articles instead of publishing through a third party. For my inaugural post, I thought I’d revisit the very first sports betting model I’ve ever built. Sports betting has been legal in Canada since the 1990s…well, sort …
+EV in the SuperContest By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics “It’s like the nature channel. You don’t see piranhas eating each other, do you?” – Mike McD, Rounders Last year, I was a part owner of an entry that placed 79th in the Westgate NFL SuperContest. After paying 30% withholding tax for non-US citizens on the GROSS cash …
B.R.E.A.M.: NFL Home Field Advantage in 2020 By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics While there is absolutely no certainty at this point about any of this, let’s suppose that the NFL regular season begins on schedule but without fans in the seats. What, then, is the value of home field advantage? It could be diminished without …
Betting Against Yourself By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics Today’s topic comes from a reader’s suggestion (yes, I do have readers!) prompted by his observation that a friend of his bet, in his words, “waaaaay too many top 20s” in a golf tournament. Some of my earliest childhood experiences with gambling were when my dad would …
Introduction to Mixed Models By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics I was chatting with a friend about a Bayesian Inference model that I had helped him build. I tried to explain to him how it worked – his response was “that’s tough to grasp”. And he was right – the guy was certainly intelligent enough, it’s …
To The Extreme: MLB Season Props By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics “To the extreme, I rock a mic like a vandalLight up a stage and wax a chump like a candle” – Vanilla Ice “Any player scores 49+ runs?” “Any player has 77+ hits?” “Any player hits 20+ home runs?” How do we price these “any player” …
Narratives By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics “If you’re looking for picks you’re in the wrong place, find a tout with a narrative to make a strong case” – “Bet the Process” podcast theme song Yesterday I had the honour of appearing on the “Happy Hour” webcast with legendary advantage player Captain Jack Andrews and Andrew Mack, author of the excellent “Statistical …
Horse Racing: Sport of Kings, Sport of Quants By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics This photo is currently hanging in my home office. I’ve never been to this track, and I don’t know any of these people. June 8, 2012 Shakopee, Minnesota It was a regular Friday evening card at Canterbury Park, one of America’s less …
NFL Season Win Totals: Two Easy Ways (And One Fun Way) to Find +EV Bets By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics NOTE: Lines move in real time, so the exact numbers I’m using in this article may be out of date by the time you read it. The general strategies should hold up regardless. I first …
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Chopped and Skewed: The Mathematics of Points Betting By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics NOTE: I have no affiliation with any of the companies or products mentioned, and I do not endorse any specific provider or service. An Australian bookmaker called PointsBet has been in the news quite often recently. They expanded into Illinois, and they signed …
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