March Madness: Presenting the analytics.b(rack)et! By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics First, two HUGE disclaimers. My domain knowledge as it relates to NCAA basketball is pretty much zero. It’s just not something I’ve ever gotten myself into. College sports just don’t have the same cultural resonance in Canada as pro sports do. I remember attending a …
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How Losers Lose By Harry Crane There are a lot of great resources out for learning how to win at sports betting. This isn’t one of them. Some of my favorite resources on winning are this article by Matt Buchalter, and Spanky’s Be Better Bettors podcast. This article is about losing. Why? Because knowing how to …
Reasons to Ignore the Kelly Criterion By Harry Crane In “sophisticated” betting circles, the Kelly Criterion is accepted as the single correct way to determine your optimal bet sizing. In plain English, the Kelly criterion says: Bet bigger when your edge is bigger and your chance of winning is higher, but bet less when …
The Value of a Sharp Network By John Benedict and Tom Quinn Read about how two Analytics.Bet classmates John Benedict (Co-founder of Sharpe Edge) and Tom Quinn, connected on the class private Slack channel and applied lessons learned in class to exploit an opportunity in the NFL Season wins market. Depending on your bet sizes, this …
“Risk Free” bets aren’t risk free By Harry Crane Many of U.S. sportsbooks offer a large “risk free” first bet to attract deposits from new customers. The amount of the risk free first bet usually ranges from $500 to $5,000. If you’re like most people, “risk free” sounds like something that has no risk. You …
Finding an Edge and Keeping It By Harry Crane With the right combination of skill, discipline and mindset, it is possible to make a significant among of money betting on sports — maybe even enough to quit your day job. Whether you want to do it full-time or make a little extra money on the …
Announcement: Bayesian Sports Betting By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics I hope everyone is having a great fall and a successful start to football season! I have been hard at work developing the course content for Bayesian Sports Betting. At this point I have around 75% of the course built. Normally I’m not the type to …
Sharp Books, Soft Books: Inside the Sportsbook Ecosystem By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics Today I’m going to tackle a topic that is somewhat controversial. Myths, misconceptions and disinformation are everywhere, there is passionate debate from all directions, and there is a lot of complex stuff going on. Let’s talk about the different ways that a …
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A Deep Learning Approach to MLB Money Line Betting Based on Joe Peta’s “Trading Bases” By David Klotz Intro In March of 2020 as the pandemic was shutting everything down and sending everyone home I found myself with a lot more time on my hands. On a recommendation from my brother, I read Joe Peta’s …
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My First Model By Matthew Buchalter, PlusEV Analytics Hi everyone! I’m going to use this “blog” to write some articles instead of publishing through a third party. For my inaugural post, I thought I’d revisit the very first sports betting model I’ve ever built. Sports betting has been legal in Canada since the 1990s…well, sort …
