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Risk Management

Risk Management

Our articles focus on the analytical foundations of sports betting - probability theory, statistical inference, market efficiency, and model validation. They are designed for readers who want to understand how betting markets work, not for those looking for quick betting picks.
Betting Against Yourself
Risk Management 7 min read

Betting Against Yourself

All three of these “bell curves” have the same EV but different variance. The lower the variance, the more likely your actual outcome will be close to your EV. Th...
15-08-2021
611
Matthew Buchalter
By Matthew Buchalter Contributor

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What Our Students Say

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This is extremely pertinent info and I am really grateful you decided to host the course.
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Brian Koral
I really enjoyed the class. I thought you guys did a good balance of beginner to more advanced concepts. Personally, it helped me formalize some of the concepts I've been using but didn't know the official theory behind. I can see potential partnership opportunities for sets of students. One of my friends was in the class and we didn't know it until I mentioned on Twitter that I enjoyed the class.
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Tony Z.
The course was awesome!! Harry and Philip did a great job of laying the foundations while simultaneously providing value to more experienced bettors with advanced topics and guests. My motivation for taking the course came down to my interest in forecasting and markets in general. I think the lessons here are broadly applicable and will help me in my explorations on where to focus my time and energy on my next big project. I think regardless of whether or not I get into betting more seriously, my investment in your course is worth it. On the one hand I may decide betting is not for me and understand better my reasons why and save myself a TON of time and money. On the other hand, I may be able to legitimately find an edge in betting (or other markets perhaps) and make some profits. If anything I'm learning that the true edges are hard to find (and maintain)!
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Aaron Green
The class exceeded my expectations! 10/10 would recommend to others. Outside of arbing, my knowledge on sports betting, prior to this class, was minimal. For the novice, this class is exactly what I was looking for. I come from other advantage play worlds so I signed up looking to add more tools to the toolkit. One aspect about the class I really enjoy is the level of detail you guys dive into by taking the time to prove concepts. A lot of “ah ha” moments. Overall the course has been invaluable. Thanks for putting this together!!
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Caveman Sam
Enjoyed the course - given me a lot of food for thought and opened my eyes to some different approaches to things too. I like the dynamic between Harry and Philip presenting the course, and if it weren't for the late night start/finish for me in the UK I might contribute more but it's fast-paced enough that there's plenty to digest too.
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Michelangelo Whitson
I have really enjoyed the course. The biggest negative I can think of is that I wish each class was 4 hours, which is definitely a compliment. Overall, great class. I went into the class thinking I needed to refresh / enhance my quant skills to continue to improve. My primary takeaway is that I need to improve my data management and efficiency more than anything.
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Tom Quinn
Very pleased with the content. Instructors did a great job presenting many of the theoretical concepts involved in sports betting. Thanks again for putting on this class, it's been very helpful and informative.
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Thomas
An enlightening and knowledge improving course.
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Steve S.

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What We Teach

Our curriculum spans the full spectrum of sports betting mastery - from foundational bankroll-building techniques that require nothing more than basic arithmetic, to advanced regression, machine learning, closing line value, arbitrage, hedging, backtesting, and automated execution. All courses include code, data, and instructor-built tools, with lifetime access.

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Are these courses beginner-friendly if I am new to betting analytics?

Yes. The curriculum is designed so motivated beginners can start with foundational concepts like probability, bankroll management, and market mechanics before moving into advanced modeling, automation, and quantitative strategy.

Do I need to know coding or advanced math before enrolling?

No. Some advanced lessons use code, data, and more technical methods, but the learning path starts with practical concepts that do not require programming. As you progress, the platform helps you build the analytical skills needed for more sophisticated work.

Who are the courses best suited for?

These courses are best for serious sports bettors, analysts, aspiring quants, and operators who want to move from intuition to structured decision-making. They are especially valuable for people who care about market efficiency, model validation, and long-term expected value.