Art of Sports Betting Analytics
Develop probabilistic intuition and modeling expertise to design and evaluate profitable strategies.
Course 1: Small Data
Hidden generators, process variance, parameter variance, ballast methods, credibility, model assumptions.
Next Cohort Begins May 1, 2022
Course 2: Bayesian Methods
Bayes theorem, conditional probability, hyperparameters, conjugate priors, mixed models, case studies.
Next Cohort Begins July 1, 2022
Course 1 Small Data
Course 2 Bayesian Methods
Rufus Peabody is widely regarded as one of the world’s top professional bettors. He is a co-founder of Massey-Peabody Analytics and of Unabated.com, and is co-host of the Bet the Process podcast
Pairwise comparison models, Bradley-Terry, double Beta distribution, NFL Bayesian power rankings, model refinements.
Review of generalized linear models, introduction of conjugate GLMs, applications to NFL and other sports, dealing with dynamic covariates.
Matt Buchalter is the owner of Plus EV Sports Analytics, which offers consulting and education to bettors of all skill levels. Matt holds a Bachelor of Mathematics degree from the University of Waterloo, where he was awarded the Samuel Eckler Medal for highest academic standing in his graduating class. Trained as an actuary, he has spent his spare time applying quantitative methods to sports betting for the past 12 years. He has had success in the Canadian sports lotteries (which Wikipedia wrongly claims are unbeatable), North American horse racing and various prop betting markets in major American sports. He has been a guest on several leading podcasts in the betting space, and he has written articles for Pinnacle Sports and more recently for his own blog where his articles have been recommended by some of the world’s leading professional bettors. Matt has achieved worldwide acclaim in the field of sports betting analytics with specialized expertise in Bayesian analysis, applied probability, optimal bet sizing, betting market dynamics and evaluation of betting results. His teaching style blends academic theory and real-world practice while keeping the atmosphere casual and fun.
Rufus Peabody is widely regarded as one of the world’s top professional bettors. He is a co-founder of Massey-Peabody Analytics and of Unabated.com, and is co-host of the Bet the Process podcast. Previously he was ESPN’s predictive analytics expert and a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. He has a B.A. in Economics from Yale University where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the MLB betting markets. He has been a panelist at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference and a speaker at numerous other global outlets and has been featured in numerous national publications including USA Today, the Washington Post, Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Sporting News, and the Wall Street Journal, which has also published his NFL and college football ratings for over a decade.