Applied Analytics & Sports Betting

This flagship course teaches the modern tools and techniques that professional sports bettors use in top-down, bottom-up, and hybrid modeling including data scraping and scripting, closing line value, arbs, middles, and hedges, backtesting, calibration, and shrinkage, advanced regression and machine learning, and more. Sixteen hours of professionally edited and arranged lectures plus live office hours and special guests and complimentary access to Foundations of Sports Betting. Includes case studies, code, data, and more.

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Benefits

1. Develop and learn to implement a process-driven analytics-based approach to sports betting.
2. Learn widely applicable technical, statistical, and practical skills.
3. Network with other alumni on private Slack workspace during and after the course is over.
4. Access to exclusive data and code repository based on course material.
5. Complimentary instant access to Foundations of Sports Betting upon enrollment.
6. Live office hours and group discussions with occasional special guests. Past special guests have included Bill Benter, Gadoon “Spanky” Kyrollos, and Matt “PlusEV Analytics” Buchalter. 

The February 2022 cohort will have special guest lectures by:

  • “JM” — a renowned sports better and market maker leading a dynamic licensed Maltese syndicate that is set up to specialize in US sports trading.
  • Dr. Bill Ziemba — a distinguished academic and investment practitioner and the author of many books on sports betting, race betting, and the stock market.

Special guests are subject to change or cancellation.

Data will include historical line data from various sports provided by TXODDS, the official data partner of Analytics.Bet LLC.

Instructors

Harry Crane is Associate Professor and Chancellor’s Excellence Scholar in Statistics, Co-Director of the Graduate Program in Statistics, and Affiliated Faculty in the Graduate Program in Philosophy at Rutgers University.

He is currently Fellow at the London Mathematical Laboratory, and has previously held positions as a Visiting Scholar in Mathematics at UC Berkeley, Research Associate at the RAND Corporation, and Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is also a co-founder of Researchers.One, a platform for scholarly publication and initiative for intellectual reform.

Harry received his PhD in Statistics from the University of Chicago and BA in Mathematics, Economics and Actuarial Science from the University of Pennsylvania.

He has profitably applied statistical and other techniques to successful sports betting and other advantage gambling opportunities and has discussed these experiences on the Business of Betting podcast, the Pinnacle podcast, the Political Trade Podcast, the Artful Trader, Old Bull TV, and other media outlets.

He is the author of Probabilistic Foundations of Statistical Network Analysis.

Website: harrycrane.com

Twitter: @harrydcrane

Philip Maymin is a professor of analytics and the director of the Master of Science in Business Analytics program at the Fairfield University Dolan School of Business where among other things he teaches both an undergraduate sports analytics course and a graduate sports analytics course. He is the founding managing editor of Algorithmic Finance and the co-founder and co-editor-in-chief of the Journal of Sports Analytics. He is the Chief Technology Officer and Chief Operating Officer for Swipe.bet, an Insight Partner with Essentia Analytics, an advisor to Athletes Unlimited, and an affiliate of the Langer Mindfulness Institute, and has been an analytics consultant with several NBA teams.

He holds a PhD in Finance from the University of Chicago, a Master’s in Applied Mathematics from Harvard University, and a Bachelor’s in Computer Science from Harvard University. He also holds a J.D. and is an attorney-at-law admitted to practice in California. He has been a portfolio manager at Long-Term Capital Management, Ellington Management Group, and his own hedge fund.

He was awarded a Wolfram Innovator Award in 2015. He has won numerous coding challenges and hackathons. He was named one of the Top 50 Data and Analytics Professionals in the US and Canada in 2018. He is the only person to have won both the Grand Prize for Best Research Paper (2018) and the Hackathon (2020) at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

He is the author of Financial Hacking.

Website: philipmaymin.com

Twitter: @pmaymin

Guest Lecturers

JM is a renowned sports bettor and market maker leading a dynamic licensed Maltese syndicate that is set up to specialize in US sports trading.

Dr. William T. Ziemba is the Alumni Professor (Emeritus) of Financial Modeling and Stochastic Optimization in the Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia where he taught from 1968-2006.  His PhD is from the University of California, Berkeley.  He currently teaches part time and makes short research visits at various universities.  Recently he is the Distinguished Visiting Research Associate, Systemic Risk Centre, London School of Economics. He is the author, among other things, of Handbook of Investments: Sports and Lottery Betting Markets with Donald Hausch, The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion with legendary hedge fund trader Edward Thorp and Leonard MacLean, and a memoirs financial history book Adventures of a Modern Renaissance Academic in Gambling and Investing. He also, along with Hausch, wrote the famous Beat the Racetrack book which was revised into Dr Z’s Beat the Racetrack which presented their place and show betting system and the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets – the so-called bible of racetrack syndicates. Their 1986 book Betting at the Racetrack extends this efficient/inefficient market approach to simple exotic bets.  Ziemba is revising BATR into Exotic Betting at the Racetrack which adds Pick3,4,5,6, etc. 

Testimonials

This course has been attended by seasoned professionals, betting novices, and everywhere in between. Students of all backgrounds found the course valuable to enhancing their approach to profitable betting. Here is what some have said:

The course was awesome!! Harry and Philip did a great job of laying the foundations while simultaneously providing value to more experienced bettors with advanced topics and guests. My motivation for taking the course came down to my interest in forecasting and markets in general. I think the lessons here are broadly applicable and will help me in my explorations on where to focus my time and energy on my next big project. I think regardless of whether or not I get into betting more seriously, my investment in your course is worth it. On the one hand I may decide betting is not for me and understand better my reasons why and save myself a TON of time and money. On the other hand, I may be able to legitimately find an edge in betting (or other markets perhaps) and make some profits. If anything I'm learning that the true edges are hard to find (and maintain)!
Aaron Green
I have really enjoyed the course. The biggest negative I can think of is that I wish each class was 4 hours, which is definitely a compliment. Overall, great class. I went into the class thinking I needed to refresh / enhance my quant skills to continue to improve. My primary takeaway is that I need to improve my data management and efficiency more than anything.
Tom Quinn
The class exceeded my expectations! 10/10 would recommend to others. Outside of arbing, my knowledge on sports betting, prior to this class, was minimal. For the novice, this class is exactly what I was looking for. I come from other advantage play worlds so I signed up looking to add more tools to the toolkit. One aspect about the class I really enjoy is the level of detail you guys dive into by taking the time to prove concepts. A lot of “ah ha” moments. Overall the course has been invaluable. Thanks for putting this together!!
Caveman Sam
Enjoyed the course - given me a lot of food for thought and opened my eyes to some different approaches to things too. I like the dynamic between Harry and Philip presenting the course, and if it weren't for the late night start/finish for me in the UK I might contribute more but it's fast-paced enough that there's plenty to digest too.
Michelangelo Whitson
It’s been great—learned a ton of useful things so far and have some ideas marinating as a direct result of the instruction.
Alec R.
I really enjoyed the class. I thought you guys did a good balance of beginner to more advanced concepts. Personally, it helped me formalize some of the concepts I've been using but didn't know the official theory behind. I can see potential partnership opportunities for sets of students. One of my friends was in the class and we didn't know it until I mentioned on Twitter that I enjoyed the class.
Tony Z.
Very pleased with the content. Instructors did a great job presenting many of the theoretical concepts involved in sports betting. Thanks again for putting on this class, it's been very helpful and informative.
Thomas
Very much enjoyed the course, a highlight being the multitude of case studies which began from lecture 1.
Trent S.
It’s been great. It’s really opened my mind about betting. I found it very amazing how the probability is associated with every aspect of the odds. The way to back test a model is also very valuable. And of course the guest lecture was amazing.
Aldo Salomon
This is extremely pertinent info and I am really grateful you decided to host the course.
Brian Koral
An enlightening and knowledge improving course.
Steve S.
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Curriculum

Prerequisites

No technical background required. All necessary skills beyond high school level mathematics will be taught as needed during the course.

Techniques will be demonstrated across different domains (major and minor sports) and using different technical concepts and tools, including Excel, Python and other platforms (based on class interest and prior preparation).

There are many ways to win in sports betting. This course will equip you with the tools, techniques, and thought process you need to create your own approach.

  • Excel
  • Python
  • Wolfram
  • R

Betting Tactics and Angles

•  Scalping and arbitrage: consensus line, sharp vs. square books, stale lines
•  Middling: basics, how to evaluate a middle, value of points and half points, converting moneyline to spread and spread to moneyline
•  Prop betting: mean vs. median, skewness, Poisson and binomial distribution
•  Parlays and teasers: Сorrelation, multiplicative advantage/disadvantage
•  In-play betting: Hedging strategies, execution time, practical considerations

Betting Strategies

•  Calculating EV and edge
•  Top-down vs. Bottom-up vs. Hybrid: market efficiency, modeling, what info is priced into the line and what isn’t.
•  Implied probabilities
•  Converting odds (decimal, American) to breakeven probabilities
•  Calculating bookmaker hold and synthetic hold
•  Computing parlay payouts and multiplicative advantage

Backtesting

•  How to develop a backtesting framework
•  Caveats of backtesting
•  Relationship between backtesting and live betting: when to skip backtesting, when to override backtested recommendations
•  Statistics: discrete and continuous distributions (Gaussian, Binomial, Poisson), Bayesian models, parameter uncertainty, modeling dependence, machine learning, deep learning
•  Practical: fixing bugs, plugging holes in process, finding flaws in approach, cleaning data, backtesting, live betting (difference between development and production), computational time/efficiency, bankroll management
•  Technical: web scraping, data cleaning, databases, and dealing with big data
•  Modeling: how to search for edges, how to know if you found an edge, what to do when you think you found an edge, and how to best execute the edge

Evaluation and Execution

•  Closing Line Value (CLV)
•  Optimal betting, Kelly criterion (simple and generalized)
•  How to know when you model is ready for live betting?
•  When to bet: betting opening lines at lower limits vs. waiting for higher limits are sharper lines
•  Root mean squared error
•  Power scores
•  Elo ratings

Case Studies

•  NBA alternative spreads and totals
•  MLB season-long league leaders and team win totals
•  NFL props and season-long wins
•  NHL alternative totals, player props and season-long points totals
•  NBA hybrid models
•  Line movements in parimutuel horse race betting

Register Now

Registration has now closed. The next cohort of this course will be offered in 2022.

The registration price is non-refundable. This course is for instructional purposes only and is provided “as is.” It does not constitute gambling, financial, or other advice. Whether you choose to gamble and if so how is entirely up to you and at your own risk. We make no representation or warranty, express, implied or otherwise, as to the accuracy, completeness, performance, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose of the information, lessons, or other material provided. You release and hold harmless Analytics.Bet LLC and its members and all instructors and guest lecturers from any and all claims and will not hold them liable for any use, misuse, or failure to use any information, lessons, or other materials, or for any errors or omissions therein. Refer to our privacy policy, disclaimer, and terms and conditions for complete details. 

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